Last weekend the Mayor of Kenilworth and I marked Ukrainian Independence Day. Many countries celebrate their independence annually of course, but Ukraine is different. Ukrainian independence is both a historical moment and an ongoing struggle, and we all have an interest in preserving it. The Second World War surely taught us that dismissing events in ‘a faraway country’ which appear to have no immediate impact on us is often a mistake, and in the case of Ukraine we have several reasons to take a close interest. First of all, the suffering of the Ukrainian people is no longer remote. Several families in our area have taken in Ukrainians over the last few years and there are many Ukrainians who are now part of our community. Secondly, as citizens of a free nation we should care about threats to the freedom of others.
But the main reason we all have an interest in Ukrainian independence is that it is under threat from Russian aggression which, if not repelled, may one day threaten us. Russia has invaded Ukraine because its President believes in a greater, more geographically extensive Russia and because he believes the West is too weak or too distracted to stop him. If he can take Ukraine, he is unlikely to stop there. Emboldened by success, he may next turn his attention to other former Russian-controlled states like the Baltic Republics. Although Ukraine is not yet a NATO member, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are of course, meaning the UK has Treaty-based obligations to intervene if they are attacked. It is often said that Putin will not risk war with NATO but Ukrainian defeat because of NATO hesitancy may change his calculation, especially if we see not all-out assault on the Baltic Republics but persistent undermining of institutions and cyber attacks which will test NATO’s assessment of the right threshold for response. All of this is much less likely if Russia does not prevail against Ukraine and that is what should inform our thinking when we decide what support to give the government and people of Ukraine. Ukrainians have made huge sacrifices to defend their own homeland and all of our interests in ensuring Russian aggression fails. Their success in defending their independence matters to us all.
